Building a picture of the status of construction

  • Building a picture of the status of construction
    Independent.t. E.
    Three stocks of construction of Ireland; CRH, Grafton and Kingspan, published their half-year results last week. Output is growing rapidly that these internships tell us about the state of the construction industry?
    https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/building-up-a-picture-of-the-state-of-construction-37251721.html
    https://www.independent.ie/business/article37251720.ece/7e124/AUTOCROP/h342/2018-08-26_bus_43525116_I1.JPG

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Three stocks of construction of Ireland; CRH, Grafton and Kingspan, published their half-year results last week. Output is growing rapidly that these internships tell us about the state of the construction industry?

CRB check a lot 800lb gorillas of the Irish-quoted stocks building. Despite the bad, i.e. construction-unfriendly weather in the first quarter, it delivered a set of internships in line with previous forecasts.

CEO albert manifold described in turn as “satisfactory”.

Sales in CRH rose by 1pc to €11.9 billion and compared with the corresponding period of time (when the acquisitions and Disposals are excluded) 2 PCs in Europe and 3pcs in North America.

EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) increased by 1pc to €1.13 billion and pre-tax profit from continuing operations rose 5pcs EUR 497m.

Even in what has always been acquisitive company, CRH was extremely busy in the first half of 2018, with the group spending €3.4 billion on new ventures and divestments for €2.9 billion. He also spent the first €350m to €1 billion to repurchase shares.

As the cost of acquisition, it is noteworthy to €632m was spent on new businesses in the first half of 2017, and deprivation of rights, revenues almost twenty-fold to €145 million received in the first half of last year, has increased dramatically.

The main acquisition in the first half of the year was €2.85 billion ash Grove cement online in the USA together with €390м smaller, ‘bolt-on’ deals.

On the side of removal, the biggest deal was the €2.4 billion sale of its U.S. distribution business. Last month, CRH announced another disposal, of €510 million sale of its European DIY assets.

It is this combination of increased activity of the transaction and €350 million spent to repurchase stock, along with seasonal factors that were largely responsible for €1.7 billion jump in net debt CRH to €8.05 billion.

Davy analyst Barry Dixon believes that net debt CRH will fall by about two times EBITDA, slightly less than €7 billion by the end of the year.

For the full year, most analysts forecast EBITDA of about €3.4 billion with Goodbody’s Robert Eason hatches more than €4 billion in 2019.

“As we look ahead to the second half of the year we expect a significant influx of operating funds, in accordance with the previous years”, – said the Director of CRH Finance Senan Murphy.

So, if anything, to make a temporary CRB tell us about the health of the Irish construction industry?

The problem with using CRH as an indicator of the state of the Irish construction industry is that the vast majority of its enterprises are located outside of Ireland.

In its full-year 2017 sales of $ 25.2 billion manats – like most construction companies, CRH writes most of its profits and sales in the second half – a total of €435m (1.7 PC) to customers in Ireland. This trend continued in the first half of 2018, with Irish sales of € 202м (1.69 PC).

Insulation company kingspan also presented its half-year results last week.

He grew sales for 15pcs (19pc when the movement of the currency has factorisable) to 2 billion euros. Income does not grow quite strongly, with EBITDA margin of 11pc 232m euros in trading profit (mostly current or pre-interest profit before depreciation of intangible assets) put forward 10pcs EUR 195м.

The good old pre-tax profit increased by 9pc to almost €178m. The total cost of the acquisition hit €235 m in the first half, compared to €8.6 million in the first half of 2017, the net debt of the group increased by €275 million euros altitude 739m.

As CRH, the Irish operations Kingspan represents a very small fraction of the total.

It is much better to evaluate the performances of the Irish construction industry builders merchanting and DIY group Grafton, which also released its interim results last week.

Grafton has increased first half sales by 9pc to £1.45 billion (€1.6 billion), Operating (pre-interest) profits to the hotel a success hole saw 14pc to £88 m and pre-tax profits by 19pc to £90M (Grafton reports its results in pounds sterling).

Irish sales Grafton £312 million tonnes (€345m) – 21pc total – grew by nearly 12pc in the first half, which was much stronger than that of its UK sales, which rose 6.7 PC to $ 1.01 billion.

Irish activities of the group, which has been a drag on the overall performance of Grafton in the years after the 2008 crisis, is now getting a huge profit from the revival of the construction industry. While Ireland contributed just over a fifth of this first half, of sale, its Irish profits, which grew by 21pc to £24.4 m, is represented in nearly 28pc of the total profit of the group.

The undoubted star of the show was Grafton’s Irish DIY chain Woodie’s, which increased in the first half sales by 16pc to £98m and its operating profit by an amazing 55pc to £7.3 million, and its Operating margin increased from 5.6 PC 7.5 PC.

With the growth in housing prices is forcing many homeowners to stay put, woody seem to benefit as consumers choose place of crafts and is the renovation of existing homes.

While Operating margin in Grafton Irish merchanting arm (mainly the chadwicks and Buckley heaton builders, suppliers of chains) fell to 8.1 PC in the first half of 2018, compared with 8.6 PC over the same period last year, this was due to changes in the structure of sales.

“Big Grafton, like other construction-related sales of Irish companies are relatively small. In General the UK is slowing. Ireland is going in the other direction,” – said the chief economist Dermot Goodbody Stockbrokers’ O’leary.

Grafton seems to benefit from further expansion in the Irish construction sector in the coming years. O’leary predicts an increase in new housing output up to 18000 this year, to 25 PC from 14,400 built in 2017.

This growth in new construction will continue for several years, as demand gradually catches up to supply with an annual production capacity of hitting 25,000 by 2020 and 35,000 in the early to mid 2020-ies.

“The residential sector over a long period of expansion,” he says.

However, O’leary sounds a warning. “Most of [the increase in house-building activity] will be the role of the public sector, whether the government can meet its obligations.”

So with the Irish construction and infrastructure construction activities growing strongly, what could go wrong?

Construction activity is highly sensitive to movement in interest rates of both developers and buyers rely heavily on borrowed money.

In the US, the Federal reserve has raised interest rates seven times since December 2015. On this side of the Atlantic, the ECB is expected to begin pushing its official interest rates next year.

Even before that she had already cut its bond-buying program by 30 billion euros per month, with a further reduction to €15 billion per month planned in next month and quantitative easing due to the termination in December.

Without the ECB in the market, long-term bond yields are already starting to move up even before the official rate increase.

While O’leary is quite calm about the prospects of a rate hike, the ECB stated that its current monetary policy is inappropriate for Irish conditions, he predicts that it will pay even more attention to the Central Bank on mortgage lending, the regulation of which place severe restrictions on several of their income buyers can take.

It has become a problem in many parts of Dublin, particularly South of the Liffey, and if they are not addressed will lead to further growth, he warns.

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